{"id":2137,"date":"2025-07-28T08:01:31","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T08:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/?p=2137"},"modified":"2025-07-28T08:01:31","modified_gmt":"2025-07-28T08:01:31","slug":"silnejsi-euro-muze-zamichat-kartami-i-na-akciovych-trzich","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/2025\/07\/28\/silnejsi-euro-muze-zamichat-kartami-i-na-akciovych-trzich\/","title":{"rendered":"Siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed euro m\u016f\u017ee zam\u00edchat kartami i na akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Posledn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce p\u0159inesly na finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy zna\u010dnou nejistotu zp\u016fsobenou p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm obchodn\u00ed politikou americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa. Z t\u00e9to situace zna\u010dn\u011b t\u011b\u017eilo euro, kter\u00e9 pos\u00edlilo v\u016f\u010di americk\u00e9mu dolaru. Hodnota EUR\/USD se za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u010dervence dostala k hranici 1,18 USD, co\u017e je nejv\u00edce za posledn\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i roky. Evropsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti s n\u00e1klady v dolarech z toho profitovaly, ale export\u00e9r\u016fm prod\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm v dolarech to m\u016f\u017ee u\u0161kodit. Pro investory je proto d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pochopit, co za t\u00edmto v\u00fdvojem stoj\u00ed a kdo z n\u011bho skute\u010dn\u011b z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010di ztr\u00e1c\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Obr\u00e1zek<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

V\u00fdvoj ceny EUR\/USD za posledn\u00edch 5 let. (Zdroj: tradingview.com)*<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u016fv\u011bra v americk\u00fd dolar sl\u00e1bne<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dolar je pod tlakem z mnoha stran. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty maj\u00ed prohlubuj\u00edc\u00ed se rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit, k tomu se p\u0159idala cla a obecn\u00e1 nejistota, kterou je\u0161t\u011b zhor\u0161ila administrativa Donalda Trumpa. Podle mnoha expert\u016f to podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bru v americkou m\u011bnu. Ratingov\u00e1 agentura Moody\u2019s dokonce sn\u00ed\u017eila Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm rating z AAA na Aa1. Na trhu se proto o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb ze strany Fedu, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b u\u017e v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed. Celkov\u011b se letos po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 se dv\u011bma sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edmi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed sazby znamenaj\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy americk\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f, co\u017e sni\u017euje atraktivitu dolaru jako bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstavu. Naopak euroz\u00f3na se zotavuje z m\u00edrn\u00e9 recese. Evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b investuj\u00ed do infrastruktury a obrany, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e N\u011bmecko ji\u017e v b\u0159eznu schv\u00e1lilo obrovsk\u00fd investi\u010dn\u00ed fond ve v\u00fd\u0161i 500 miliard eur. I kdy\u017e pen\u00edze zat\u00edm nebyly \u010derp\u00e1ny, trhy reaguj\u00ed pozitivn\u011b. Evropsk\u00e1 komise o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst euroz\u00f3ny v roce 2025 dos\u00e1hne 1,3 % (oproti 0,8 % v roce 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm faktorem je tak\u00e9 rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosech. ECB sice sni\u017euje \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, ale velmi opatrn\u011b. Trh letos po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s maxim\u00e1ln\u011b jedn\u00edm dal\u0161\u00edm sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm, po kter\u00e9m by sazby m\u011bly z\u016fstat stabiln\u00ed. To kontrastuje s avizovanou politikou Fedu. V\u00fdsledkem je, \u017ee v\u00fdnosy evropsk\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f jsou v tuto chv\u00edli atraktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ty americk\u00e9 \u2013 a to euro siln\u011b podporuje. Prezidentka ECB Christine Lagardeov\u00e1 zd\u016fraznila, \u017ee inflace je ji\u017e pod kontrolou a euroz\u00f3na m\u00e1 dobr\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky. Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investo\u0159i proto \u010dast\u011bji p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed kapit\u00e1l do Evropy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kdo na siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm euru vyd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pokud maj\u00ed firmy n\u00e1klady v dolarech a p\u0159\u00edjmy v eurech, siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed euro jim sni\u017euje n\u00e1klady. Typick\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem jsou leteck\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti jako Lufthansa, Ryanair \u010di Air France-KLM, kter\u00e9 plat\u00ed za palivo a pron\u00e1jem letadel v dolarech. Lufthansa ji\u017e ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku 2024 t\u011b\u017eila z ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch cen ropy, nyn\u00ed j\u00ed siln\u00e9 euro d\u00e1le zlep\u0161uje v\u00fdsledky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Textiln\u00ed firmy jako nap\u0159\u00edklad Inditex (majitel zna\u010dky Zara) nakupuj\u00ed oble\u010den\u00ed v Asii v dolarech. Posil\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed euro jim sni\u017euje jednotkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, co\u017e zlep\u0161uje mar\u017ee. Inditex o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee i kdy\u017e kurz sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed tr\u017eby asi o 3 %, sou\u010dasn\u011b u\u0161et\u0159\u00ed na n\u00e1kladech, tak\u017ee celkov\u00fd dopad m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pozitivn\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Americk\u00e9 firmy s velk\u00fdm pod\u00edlem tr\u017eeb v Evrop\u011b jako Apple, Microsoft, Coca-Cola \u010di McDonald\u2019s zaznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed dolarov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy p\u0159i p\u0159epo\u010dtu z eura. Apple nap\u0159\u00edklad z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 zhruba \u010dtvrtinu sv\u00fdch tr\u017eeb z Evropy, tak\u017ee siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed euro mu m\u016f\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161it \u010dist\u00fd zisk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Komu silnej\u0161\u00ed euro nevyhovuje<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kdy\u017e se dolarov\u00e9 tr\u017eby p\u0159epo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1vaj\u00ed na siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed euro, kone\u010dn\u00fd zisk kles\u00e1. Airbus, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 v\u00edce ne\u017e dv\u011b t\u0159etiny tr\u017eeb v USD, odhaduje, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e9 pos\u00edlen\u00ed eura o jeden cent znamen\u00e1 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u010dist\u00e9ho zisku o 125 milion\u016f eur. Luxusn\u00ed zna\u010dky jako LVMH \u010di Kering generuj\u00ed 20\u201330 % tr\u017eeb na americk\u00e9m trhu. Siln\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed euro pro n\u011b znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jejich produkty v USA zdra\u017euj\u00ed, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee tlumit popt\u00e1vku. Sou\u010dasn\u011b se jejich zisky v dolarech p\u0159epo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1vaj\u00ed na m\u00e9n\u011b eur. Pat\u0159\u00ed sem i nizozemsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost ASML, kter\u00e1 vyr\u00e1b\u00ed litografick\u00e9 stroje vyu\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 p\u0159i v\u00fdrob\u011b polovodi\u010d\u016f a dod\u00e1v\u00e1 je p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm technologick\u00fdm firm\u00e1m v z\u00e1mo\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e1hl\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst kurzu eura v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku 2025 zas\u00e1hl trhy intenzivn\u011bji, ne\u017e se \u010dekalo. M\u011bnov\u00e9 riziko z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pro evropsk\u00e9 firmy d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm faktorem. Investo\u0159i by m\u011bli sledovat, jak firmy p\u0159istupuj\u00ed k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed kurzov\u00fdch pohyb\u016f a zda dok\u00e1\u017eou sv\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed modely adaptovat. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se ukazuje, \u017ee euro jako m\u011bna op\u011bt z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bru, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee dlouhodob\u011b zm\u011bnit toky kapit\u00e1lu a p\u0159esm\u011brovat \u010d\u00e1st investic z USA sm\u011brem k evropsk\u00fdm aktivum. Pokud bude euro siln\u00e9 i ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku, bude d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 sledovat, zda ECB z\u016fstane opatrn\u00e1 p\u0159i sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb a zda siln\u00e1 m\u011bna neza\u010dne tlumit r\u016fst cen a\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161. I to m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit sm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky v euroz\u00f3n\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adam Austera, analytik <\/strong>Ozios<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foto: AdobeStock<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Posledn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce p\u0159inesly na finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy zna\u010dnou nejistotu zp\u016fsobenou p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm obchodn\u00ed politikou americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa. Z t\u00e9to situace zna\u010dn\u011b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout"},"categories":[58],"tags":[359,358,190,360,267],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2137"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2137"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2137\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2140,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2137\/revisions\/2140"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2139"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}