{"id":2269,"date":"2025-09-24T10:44:50","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T10:44:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/?p=2269"},"modified":"2025-09-24T10:44:50","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T10:44:50","slug":"fed-poprve-v-roce-2025-snizuje-sazby-co-to-znamena-pro-ceske-investory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/2025\/09\/24\/fed-poprve-v-roce-2025-snizuje-sazby-co-to-znamena-pro-ceske-investory\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed poprv\u00e9 v roce 2025 sni\u017euje sazby. Co to znamen\u00e1 pro \u010desk\u00e9 investory?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Americk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka (Fed) se po n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch v\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed vr\u00e1tila k uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky. Na z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eila z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu o \u010dtvrt procentn\u00edho bodu do p\u00e1sma 4,00 \u2013 4,25 %. D\u016fvodem je podle p\u0159edsedy Jerome Powella sl\u00e1bnouc\u00ed trh pr\u00e1ce v USA a pot\u0159eba efektivn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rizika.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro\u010d je to d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy je sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb standardn\u011b jasnou zpr\u00e1vou. Fed se znovu stav\u00ed na stranu r\u016fstu a sna\u017e\u00ed se p\u0159edej\u00edt recesi. Po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed reakce hlavn\u00edch akciov\u00fdch index\u016f byla sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e1, ale v podstat\u011b \u0161lo o projev tr\u017en\u00edch mechanism\u016f p\u0159ed v\u00fdslednou reakc\u00ed, kter\u00e1 byla jednozna\u010dn\u011b b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed. FedWatch skupiny CME do budoucnosti o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee sazby p\u016fjdou dol\u016f je\u0161t\u011b na dvou leto\u0161n\u00edch zased\u00e1n\u00edch \u2013 v \u0159\u00edjnu a v prosinci. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2026 by se tak z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sazba m\u011bla pohybovat mezi 3,50 \u2013 3,75 %. Obdobn\u011b situaci vn\u00edm\u00e1 i samotn\u00fd Fed \u2013 v projekc\u00edch po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 se sazbou v\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bru roka na \u00farovni 3,60 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u017en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro \u010desk\u00e9 investory je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9, \u017ee ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed sazby v USA mohou podpo\u0159it r\u016fst akciov\u00fdch trh\u016f, zejm\u00e9na v segmentech citliv\u00fdch na financov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 technologie, realitn\u00ed sektor \u010di mal\u00e9 a st\u0159edn\u00ed firmy. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ochota riskovat se n\u00e1sledn\u011b obvykle prom\u00edt\u00e1 do vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vky po akci\u00edch i rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch aktivech. Zaj\u00edmav\u00fd efekt m\u00e1 v\u0161ak i kurz dolaru. Uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky v USA m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k oslaben\u00ed USD v\u016f\u010di korun\u011b \u010di euru.[2] To je sice nev\u00fdhoda pro export\u00e9ry z \u010ceska, ale naopak p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost pro \u010desk\u00e9 investory, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed levn\u011bji nakupovat americk\u00e1 aktiva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Co t\u00edm Fed sleduje?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rozhodnut\u00ed nen\u00ed bez rizik. Inflace v USA z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 \u2013 v srpnu \u010dinila 2,9 %, zat\u00edmco v dubnu byla jen 2,3 %. Ekonomika nav\u00edc vykazuje st\u0159\u00eddav\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky. Prvn\u00ed \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2025 skon\u010dilo poklesem HDP o 0,5 %, druh\u00e9 naopak r\u016fstem o 3,3 %. V neposledn\u00ed \u0159ade, trh pr\u00e1ce pro\u0161el reviz\u00ed, kter\u00e1 uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee za posledn\u00ed rok vzniklo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o milion pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e se p\u016fvodn\u011b uv\u00e1d\u011blo. I proto Powell zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee ekonomika ne\u010del\u00ed bezprost\u0159edn\u00edmu riziku a Fed jedn\u00e1 nez\u00e1visle, bez ohledu na politick\u00fd tlak, p\u0159esto\u017ee prezident Donald Trump tla\u010dil na razantn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jak reagovat jako investor?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pokud Fed skute\u010dn\u011b napln\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a bude sazby d\u00e1l sni\u017eovat, mohou z toho \u010de\u0161t\u00ed investo\u0159i v\u00fdrazn\u011b t\u011b\u017eit. Ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed sazby toti\u017e zpravidla podporuj\u00ed r\u016fst americk\u00fdch akci\u00ed, a to zejm\u00e9na u technologick\u00fdch firem, kter\u00e9 jsou na levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed nejcitliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Zaj\u00edmavou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost nab\u00edzej\u00ed tak\u00e9 dluhopisy, proto\u017ee klesaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdnosy zvy\u0161uj\u00ed jejich tr\u017en\u00ed hodnotu a investor, kter\u00fd je nakoup\u00ed v\u010das, m\u016f\u017ee z\u00edskat p\u0159islouchaj\u00edc\u00ed kapit\u00e1lov\u00fd zisk. Slab\u0161\u00ed dolar ov\u0161em m\u016f\u017ee sni\u017eovat v\u00fdnosy z americk\u00fdch aktiv p\u0159i p\u0159epo\u010dtu do korun, a proto je rozumn\u00e9 zv\u00e1\u017eit alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 m\u011bnov\u00e9 zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed Fedu je pro finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy sign\u00e1lem, \u017ee se po obdob\u00ed restrikce bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed m\u011bk\u010d\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e1 politika. \u010cesk\u00fd investor m\u00e1 mo\u017enost vyu\u017e\u00edt tuto zm\u011bnu nejen k v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed expozici v USA, ale i ku geografick\u00e9 diverzifikaci portfolia v dob\u011b, kdy Evropa \u010del\u00ed vlastn\u00edm ekonomick\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m. Jak poznamenal analytik Simon Dangoor z Goldman Sachs: \u201eHolubice se vr\u00e1tily ke kormidlu.\u201c A to je v\u011bta, kterou investo\u0159i sly\u0161\u00ed velmi r\u00e1di.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roman Vykou\u0159il, analytik <\/strong>Wonderinterest Trading s.r.o.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foto: AdobeStock<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Americk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka (Fed) se po n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch v\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed vr\u00e1tila k uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky. Na z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eila z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2270,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout"},"categories":[58],"tags":[350,445,190,446,266],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2269"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2269"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2269\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2271,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2269\/revisions\/2271"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2270"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2269"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2269"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2269"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}