{"id":2654,"date":"2026-05-18T12:44:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T12:44:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/?p=2654"},"modified":"2026-05-18T12:44:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T12:44:11","slug":"skutecny-sok-z-pekingu-spociva-v-rope-nikoli-v-obchodu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/2026\/05\/18\/skutecny-sok-z-pekingu-spociva-v-rope-nikoli-v-obchodu\/","title":{"rendered":"Skute\u010dn\u00fd \u0161ok z Pekingu spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v rop\u011b, nikoli v obchodu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Donald Trump str\u00e1vil v Pekingu 43 hodin, kam p\u0159ijel s delegac\u00ed gener\u00e1ln\u00edch \u0159editel\u016f, sliby v oblasti obchodu a r\u00e9torikou vyjednava\u010de. Odj\u00ed\u017ed\u011bl s prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm Si \u0164in-pchinga, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna nebude dod\u00e1vat vojensk\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed do \u00cdr\u00e1nu, a s nejasn\u00fdm slibem, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna by mohla za\u010d\u00edt nakupovat americkou ropu. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 objemy, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 harmonogramy, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 podepsan\u00e9 smlouvy. Trump zakon\u010dil summit v podstat\u011b tam, kde za\u010dal. Pro trhy v\u0161ak p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh nekon\u010d\u00ed diplomatick\u00fdm zklam\u00e1n\u00edm. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tam za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V Pekingu nikdy ne\u0161lo jen o obchod<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summit byl v\u017edy v\u00edc ne\u017e jen obchodn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n, Tchaj-wan, um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence, jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b a obchod, to v\u0161e byly t\u00e9mata, kter\u00e1 byla na stole sou\u010dasn\u011b, co\u017e z n\u011bj ud\u011blalo prvn\u00ed setk\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto rozsahu za v\u00edce ne\u017e \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Si \u0164in-pching udal t\u00f3n hned na za\u010d\u00e1tku, kdy\u017e varoval, \u017ee jak\u00e9koli nespr\u00e1vn\u00e9 zach\u00e1zen\u00ed s tchajwanskou ot\u00e1zkou by mohlo v\u00e1\u017en\u011b ohrozit vztahy mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou. Peking vyu\u017eil summit k prosazen\u00ed sv\u00e9ho vlastn\u00edho r\u00e1mce: t\u0159\u00edlet\u00e9 dohody o strategick\u00e9 stabilit\u011b, kter\u00e1 z \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho pohledu ukotvuje vztahy s Washingtonem, ani\u017e by se vzdala jak\u00e9hokoli konkr\u00e9tn\u00edho vlivu. Analytik Jack Lee z China Macro Group to popsal jako pokus Pekingu vyu\u017e\u00edt Trumpovu ochotu zapojit se transak\u010dn\u011b do budov\u00e1n\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9ho r\u00e1mce pro cel\u00e9 vztahy mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou, v\u010detn\u011b budouc\u00edch administrativ. Nejedn\u00e1 se o obchodn\u00ed dohodu. Je to \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e1 hra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hormuz se stal skute\u010dnou ud\u00e1lost\u00ed na trhu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sign\u00e1l pro trh ze summitu nep\u0159i\u0161el z tiskov\u00e9 konference. P\u0159i\u0161el z ropn\u00e9ho trhu. Cena ropy Brent v p\u00e1tek vzrostla o v\u00edce ne\u017e 2 % na 108,25 USD za barel pot\u00e9, co Trump pro Fox News \u0159ekl, \u017ee ztr\u00e1c\u00ed trp\u011blivost s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a \u017ee pl\u00e1nuje ud\u011blat mnohem v\u00edce.* Z\u00e1rove\u0148 Trump b\u011bhem summitu \u0159ekl, \u017ee nikdy p\u0159\u00edmo nepo\u017e\u00e1dal Si \u0164in-pchinga, aby vyv\u00edjel tlak na \u00cdr\u00e1n v souvislosti s Hormuzem, proto\u017ee, podle jeho vlastn\u00edch slov, nepot\u0159ebuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 laskavosti. Pr\u016fliv, kter\u00fdm proch\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u011btina celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu ropy, je v podstat\u011b uzav\u0159en od \u00fanora, kdy za\u010dal konflikt USA a Izraele s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. B\u011bhem summitu proplul \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd tanker vodn\u00ed cestou za zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edch podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1n vyjednal pro ur\u010dit\u00e1 plavidla. To nen\u00ed normalizace provozu. Je to jeden tanker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

V\u00fdvoj ceny ropy Brent za posledn\u00edch p\u011bt let* Zdroj: TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rozd\u00edl mezi ozn\u00e1men\u00edmi a v\u00fdsledky je st\u00e1le velk\u00fd<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 strana ozna\u010dila dohody projednan\u00e9 b\u011bhem Trumpovy n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy o clech, zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a letadlech za p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e podrobnosti maj\u00ed b\u00fdt finalizov\u00e1ny prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm nov\u011b z\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch komis\u00ed. V\u00fdsledek summitu byl skromn\u00fd a spo\u010d\u00edval sp\u00ed\u0161e ve stabilizaci vztah\u016f a snaze zabr\u00e1nit dal\u0161\u00ed eskalaci ne\u017e v jak\u00e9mkoli pr\u016flomu. \u010c\u00edna v roce 2024 nakoupila v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 % \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu ropy a velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st jej\u00edch \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch dovoz\u016f ropy tak\u00e9 proch\u00e1z\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Peking m\u00e1 na udr\u017een\u00ed pr\u016flivu otev\u0159en\u00e9ho vlastn\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd z\u00e1jem, nejen diplomatick\u00fd. Znamen\u00e1 to v\u0161ak tak\u00e9, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna nen\u00ed ochotna po\u0161kodit sv\u00e9 vztahy s Teher\u00e1nem jen proto, aby prok\u00e1zala slu\u017ebu Washingtonu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Co by investo\u0159i m\u011bli d\u00e1le sledovat<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1ze se net\u00fdk\u00e1 samotn\u00e9ho summitu, ale toho, zda tento politick\u00fd kan\u00e1l p\u0159inese skute\u010dn\u00e9 zm\u011bny v oblasti energetick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti a realizace obchodu. Pokud se Washingtonu a Pekingu poda\u0159\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edt sou\u010dasn\u00fd dialog ke zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed tlaku na \u00cdr\u00e1n a pos\u00edlen\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry v n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravu p\u0159es Hormuz, mohla by ropa ztratit \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 pr\u00e9mie, co\u017e by m\u011blo p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd dopad na infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fd dopad na uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank, v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f a v\u00fdvoj americk\u00e9ho dolaru v\u016f\u010di m\u011bn\u00e1m v\u00e1zan\u00fdm na komodity. Pokud se tak nestane, z\u016fstanou tato t\u0159i rizika \u00fazce propojena. Strategick\u00e9 t\u0159enice mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a \u010c\u00ednou, nestabilita na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a trh, kter\u00fd st\u00e1le ost\u0159e reaguje na ka\u017edou novinku t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se jednoho z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch energetick\u00fdch uzl\u016f sv\u011bta. To je skute\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdznam Pekingu. Summit nemusel p\u0159in\u00e9st historickou obchodn\u00ed dohodu, aby m\u011bl v\u00fdznam, proto\u017ee jeho nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm d\u016fsledkem m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt to, \u017ee op\u011bt upoutal pozornost investor\u016f na jedinou ot\u00e1zku, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit v\u00edce t\u0159\u00edd aktiv najednou. Riziko dod\u00e1vek ropy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peter Svore\u0148, <\/strong>CEO ApmeFX<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

* Minul\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky nejsou z\u00e1rukou budouc\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump str\u00e1vil v Pekingu 43 hodin, kam p\u0159ijel s delegac\u00ed gener\u00e1ln\u00edch \u0159editel\u016f, sliby v oblasti obchodu a r\u00e9torikou vyjednava\u010de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2656,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout"},"categories":[58],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2654"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2654"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2654\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2657,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2654\/revisions\/2657"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2656"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}