{"id":2852,"date":"2026-09-24T07:19:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T07:19:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/?p=2852"},"modified":"2026-09-24T07:19:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T07:19:09","slug":"proc-drahe-letecke-palivo-zatim-nezvysilo-ceny-letenek-a-kdy-prijde-ucet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/2026\/09\/24\/proc-drahe-letecke-palivo-zatim-nezvysilo-ceny-letenek-a-kdy-prijde-ucet\/","title":{"rendered":"Pro\u010d drah\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 palivo zat\u00edm nezv\u00fd\u0161ilo ceny letenek a kdy p\u0159ijde \u00fa\u010det?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

V\u00fdpadek dod\u00e1vek z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu nezp\u016fsobil na evropsk\u00fdch leti\u0161t\u00edch nedostatek komodity, vytvo\u0159il v\u0161ak geografickou nerovnov\u00e1hu. Zat\u00edmco Asie disponuje p\u0159ebytky, Evropa mus\u00ed palivo p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1vat ze vzd\u00e1len\u00fdch trh\u016f prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm vysok\u00fdch dovozn\u00edch pr\u00e9mi\u00ed. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 mar\u017ee rafineri\u00ed zat\u00edm absorbuj\u00ed term\u00ednov\u00e1 zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a provozn\u00ed mar\u017ee aerolini\u00ed, s p\u0159\u00edchodem zimn\u00ed sez\u00f3ny se v\u0161ak tento tlumic\u00ed efekt vy\u010derp\u00e1.[1]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geografick\u00e1 nerovnov\u00e1ha<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskalace konfliktu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b od\u0159\u00edzla p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b polovinu dovozu leteck\u00e9ho paliva, na kter\u00fd se evropsk\u00fd trh dlouhodob\u011b spol\u00e9hal. Analytick\u00e1 spole\u010dnost Energy Aspects odhaduje, \u017ee kontinentu bude ve \u010dtvrt\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed chyb\u011bt p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 510 tis\u00edc barel\u016f jet fuelu denn\u011b. Probl\u00e9mem v\u0161ak nen\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit ropy \u010di fin\u00e1ln\u00edho produktu. Ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed toti\u017e region Asie a Pacifiku vykazuje p\u0159ebytek v\u00edce ne\u017e 400 tis\u00edc barel\u016f denn\u011b. Nast\u00e1v\u00e1 tak situace, kdy komodita na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu existuje, nach\u00e1z\u00ed se v\u0161ak ve v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti od m\u00edsta spot\u0159eby.[2]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aby obchodn\u00edci p\u0159esm\u011brovali tankery z Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje \u010di Nig\u00e9rie do Rotterdamu, mus\u00ed evropsk\u00fd trh vytvo\u0159it dostate\u010dn\u00fd cenov\u00fd diferenci\u00e1l. Evropa tak fyzick\u00fd deficit vyrovn\u00e1v\u00e1 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed dovozn\u00ed pr\u00e9mie. Provozn\u00ed rezerva schopn\u00e1 tlumit p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed nab\u00eddkov\u00e9 \u0161oky se v\u0161ak zmen\u0161uje. Z\u00e1soby v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9m uzlu Amsterdam\u2013Rotterdam\u2013Antverpy klesly na sedmilet\u00e9 minimum 454 tis\u00edc tun, co\u017e zvy\u0161uje zranitelnost trhu v\u016f\u010di nepl\u00e1novan\u00fdm v\u00fdpadk\u016fm rafineri\u00ed nebo logistick\u00fdm zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odklon od cen ropy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro finan\u010dn\u00ed analytiky a veden\u00ed leteck\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed p\u0159est\u00e1v\u00e1 b\u00fdt samotn\u00e1 cena ropy Brent kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm indik\u00e1torem n\u00e1kladov\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje. Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed vliv z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 takzvan\u00fd crack spread, tedy rozd\u00edl mezi cenou surov\u00e9 ropy a fin\u00e1ln\u00edho zpracovan\u00e9ho paliva. Tento ukazatel odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed nejen mar\u017ei rafineri\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na p\u0159epravu a poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed del\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch tras. Odhadovan\u00fd spread na \u00farovni 57 USD za barel potvrzuje, \u017ee hlavn\u00ed cenov\u00fd tlak vznik\u00e1 a\u017e v procesu rafinace a logistiky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00fdrazn\u00e9 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed tohoto cenov\u00e9ho rozp\u011bt\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u011b m\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1kladovou strukturu leteck\u00fdch dopravc\u016f. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed sdru\u017een\u00ed leteck\u00fdch dopravc\u016f (IATA) o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee celkov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje odv\u011btv\u00ed na palivo vzrostou meziro\u010dn\u011b o necel\u00fdch 100 miliard na 350 miliard USD. Palivo tak bude tvo\u0159it v\u00edce ne\u017e 31 % celkov\u00fdch provozn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f aerolini\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se p\u0159ibli\u017euje \u00farovn\u00edm z p\u0159edchoz\u00edch energetick\u00fdch kriz\u00ed.[3]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Term\u00ednov\u00e9 zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed cen<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u016fvodem, pro\u010d se vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed vstupn\u00ed n\u00e1klady zat\u00edm neprojevily v cen\u00e1ch letenek, je finan\u010dn\u00ed architektura zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. \u00dadaje EUROCONTROL uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee re\u00e1ln\u00e9 ceny letenek v Evrop\u011b do \u010dervence po o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed o inflaci dokonce meziro\u010dn\u011b o 1 % klesly. Evropsk\u00e9 aerolinie toti\u017e vstoupily do obdob\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 volatility s p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 70% zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm spot\u0159eby paliva prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm p\u0159edem dohodnut\u00fdch kontrakt\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Term\u00ednov\u00e9 kryt\u00ed v\u0161ak n\u00e1kladov\u00fd tlak neeliminuje, pouze posouv\u00e1 jeho \u010dasov\u00fd dopad. S postupnou expirac\u00ed v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch smluv budou dopravci nuceni nakupovat palivo za aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed tr\u017en\u00ed ceny. Prvn\u00ed f\u00e1zi cenov\u00e9ho \u0161oku tak absorbuj\u00ed provozn\u00ed mar\u017ee. IATA ji\u017e revidovala o\u010dek\u00e1vanou \u010distou mar\u017ei evropsk\u00fdch dopravc\u016f pro rok 2026 sm\u011brem dol\u016f na 3,1 %, co\u017e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 \u010dist\u00e9mu zisku p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 7,50 USD na p\u0159epraven\u00e9ho cestuj\u00edc\u00edho.[4]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Omezen\u00fd prostor pro dal\u0161\u00ed absorpci<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tlak na hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky prohlubuje skute\u010dnost, \u017ee popt\u00e1vka po osobn\u00ed leteck\u00e9 doprav\u011b si udr\u017euje vysokou dynamiku. Letn\u00ed sez\u00f3na zaznamenala rekordn\u00ed objemy let\u016f, co\u017e potvrzuje odolnost spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky. Proto\u017ee k tr\u017en\u00edmu vyrovn\u00e1n\u00ed nedoch\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159irozen\u00fdm poklesem z\u00e1jmu o cestov\u00e1n\u00ed, cel\u00e1 z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e spojen\u00e1 s n\u00e1kladovou korekc\u00ed p\u0159ech\u00e1z\u00ed na cenotvorbu a \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed kapacit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S n\u00e1stupem zimn\u00edho letov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du a postupn\u00fdm dob\u00edh\u00e1n\u00edm historick\u00fdch zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed se prostor pro kryt\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f z vlastn\u00edch mar\u017e\u00ed vy\u010derp\u00e1. Aerolinie budou \u010delit rozhodnut\u00ed mezi pln\u00fdm p\u0159enesen\u00edm dovozn\u00ed pr\u00e9mie do kone\u010dn\u00fdch cen letenek a optimalizac\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b ziskov\u00fdch linek s c\u00edlem sn\u00ed\u017eit celkovou spot\u0159ebu paliva. Pro trh to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b znamen\u00e1 postupn\u00fd konec obdob\u00ed stabiln\u00edch cen letenek v Evrop\u011b.[5]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anna \u0160uhajdov\u00e1, p\u0159edsedkyn\u011b p\u0159edstavenstva <\/strong>CAPITAL MARKETS, o.c.p., a.s.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] \u2013 [5] V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady a aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159esn\u00e1, nebo vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit. Tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nezaru\u010duj\u00ed budouc\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost. V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ze sv\u00e9 podstaty zahrnuj\u00ed riziko a nejistotu, proto\u017ee souvisej\u00ed s budouc\u00edmi ud\u00e1lostmi a okolnostmi, kter\u00e9 nelze p\u0159edv\u00eddat, a skute\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj a v\u00fdsledky se mohou v\u00fdrazn\u011b li\u0161it od v\u00fdsledk\u016f vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00fdch nebo implikovan\u00fdch v jak\u00fdchkoli v\u00fdhledov\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch. Tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nezaru\u010duj\u00ed budouc\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost. Spole\u010dnost CAPITAL MARKETS, o.c.p., a.s. je subjektem regulovan\u00fdm N\u00e1rodn\u00ed bankou Slovenska.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00fdpadek dod\u00e1vek z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu nezp\u016fsobil na evropsk\u00fdch leti\u0161t\u00edch nedostatek komodity, vytvo\u0159il v\u0161ak geografickou nerovnov\u00e1hu. Zat\u00edmco Asie disponuje p\u0159ebytky, Evropa<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2612,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout"},"categories":[58],"tags":[755,747,753,752,335,754,749,503,588,748,756,751,750],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2852"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2852"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2852\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2853,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2852\/revisions\/2853"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2612"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iforbes.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}